The Independent Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (MÜSİAD) stands as one of Turkey's most influential non-governmental organizations within the economic and political landscape. Statements by its president, Mr. Özdemir, not only reflect the sentiments of the broader Turkish business community but often provide significant indicators regarding government directions and future economic policies.

MÜSİAD's Expectations for H2 2026:

Expectations suggest continued government efforts to bring inflation under control, with a more moderate pace of increase anticipated in the second half of the year. Steady, albeit perhaps moderate, economic growth is projected, driven by robust exports, selective domestic demand, and strategic investments. There is a strong emphasis on attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into high value-added sectors such as manufacturing, renewable energy, logistics, and technology.

Implications for Foreign Businesses and Investors:

1.

Investment Climate and FDI Attraction: The focus on macroeconomic stability and combating inflation indicates a more predictable investment environment. Targeted investment incentives might be introduced for specific sectors to further enhance Turkey's attractiveness for foreign capital.

2.

Company Registration and Establishing a Presence: Company registration procedures are likely to remain streamlined and accessible. New investors can leverage this environment, especially if targeting government-focused sectors. Understanding local regulations and seeking expert guidance is crucial for a seamless establishment process.

3.

Real Estate Market Dynamics: The performance of the real estate market is closely tied to overall economic health. If economic growth continues and expectations improve, the real estate market, particularly commercial properties in major urban centers and industrial zones, could see a resurgence. However, investors should assess risks related to inflation and interest rates.

4.

Tax Laws and Potential Incentives: The government may continue to offer tax incentives for investors in specialized Organized Industrial Zones (OSBs) or priority sectors. Corporate tax (KDV) and other tax laws are expected to remain stable, with a focus on compliance and transparency. Foreign investors are advised to consult with local tax experts to ensure optimal compliance and capitalize on any available incentives.

5.

Sectoral Opportunities: MÜSİAD's expectations highlight export-oriented manufacturing, renewable energy, infrastructure and logistics, and technology (especially in R&D and innovation) as key growth opportunities. Foreign investors with expertise in these areas may find a conducive environment in Turkey.

Strategic Considerations:

Foreign investors should analyze these expectations in the context of their long-term investment goals. Turkey's commitment to economic stability and export-driven growth provides a solid foundation. However, challenges remain, notably inflation management and currency exchange rate fluctuations. Obtaining professional advice from local accounting, tax consulting, and legal experts is paramount for making informed decisions and navigating any potential complexities of the Turkish business environment.

Conclusion:

MÜSİAD's expectations for H2 2026 paint a cautiously optimistic picture for the Turkish economy, emphasizing stability and export-driven growth. For foreign businesses and investors, these projections highlight available opportunities while underscoring the importance of a deep understanding of Turkey's regulatory and economic landscape.